Logarithms & Exponentials — W1–W2 Review

9709 Paper 3 · §3.2 Logarithmic & Exponential · W1–W2 Comprehensive Review (L6)
🧠 Speed Retrieval — The Whole Chapter in 8 Questions

The Mission

Eight rapid questions — one for each skill from Lessons 1–5: log laws, natural logarithms, exponential equations, linearising data and growth models. No calculator: use the laws and the structure, not decimals. Target pace: about 7 seconds per question.

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Q1 (L1 Log definition): $\log_3 81 = ?$
Enter an integer (whole number; it may be negative)

$3^4 = 81$, so $\log_3 81 = 4$. The notation asks: which power of $3$ gives $81$?

Q2 (L1 Product law): Which expression equals $\log_{10}(2 \times 3)$?
$\log_{10}2 \times \log_{10}3$
$\log_{10}(2+3)$
$\log_{10}2 + \log_{10}3$
$\log_{10}2 - \log_{10}3$

Product law: $\log_{10}(2 \times 3) = \log_{10}2 + \log_{10}3 = \log_{10}6$. The trap: $\log_{10}(2+3)$ is not $\log_{10}2 + \log_{10}3$ — no log law splits a sum inside the argument.

Q3 (L2 Natural log): $\ln e^7 = ?$
Enter an integer (whole number; it may be negative)

$\ln$ is the logarithm with base $e$, so $\ln e^7 = 7$ — in general $\log_a a^n = n$.

Q4 (L1 Power law): Which expression equals $\ln(x^2)$?
$(\ln x)^2$
$2\ln x$
$\ln 2x$
$\dfrac{\ln x}{2}$

Power law: $\ln(x^2) = 2\ln x$. The trap: $(\ln x)^2$ is the square of the logarithm — a different object that cannot be simplified.

Q5 (L3 Exponential equation): Solve $3^x = \dfrac{1}{27}$. What is $x$?
Enter an integer (whole number; it may be negative)

$\dfrac{1}{27} = 27^{-1} = 3^{-3}$, so $3^x = 3^{-3}$ gives $x = -3$. A negative exponent means a reciprocal.

Q6 (L3 Change of base): Solving $2^x = 10$, which step is correct?
$x = \dfrac{\ln 2}{\ln 10}$
$x = \ln 10 - \ln 2$
$x = \dfrac{\ln 10}{\ln 2}$
$x = \ln 8$

Take logs of both sides: $x\ln 2 = \ln 10$, so $x = \dfrac{\ln 10}{\ln 2}$. Flipping the fraction or subtracting the logs are the two classic slips.

Q7 (L4 Linearising): The model $y = ab^t$ is plotted as $\ln y$ against $t$. The gradient of the line is...
$b$
$\ln a$
$\log_b a$
$\ln b$

$y = ab^t \Rightarrow \ln y = \ln a + t\ln b$. So the gradient is $\ln b$ and the intercept is $\ln a$. (For the power model $y = ax^b$, plot $\ln y$ against $\ln x$: gradient $b$, intercept $\ln a$.)

Q8 (L5 Growth model): A population of 2000 grows by 8% per year. After $t$ years the population is...
$P = 2000 + 0.08t$
$P = 2000(1.08)^t$
$P = 2000(0.92)^t$
$P = 2000(1.8)^t$

Growth of 8% multiplies by $1.08$ each year: $P = 2000(1.08)^t$. Adding $0.08t$ is linear growth, and $0.92$ would model 8% decay.

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The Bridge — Where This Review Goes

You have just retrieved every tool from this chapter: log laws, natural logarithms, exponential equations, linearising and growth models. In this lesson we chain them together the way exam questions do — alongside the W1 algebra toolkit (modulus, factor theorem, partial fractions, binomial expansion). Any question that felt slow is your personal revision target for today.

📋 Key Points — W1–W2 Consolidation
1 Logarithm Laws & Change of Base

For $a, b, x, y > 0$ with $a, b \neq 1$:

Product: $\log_a(xy) = \log_a x + \log_a y$  |  Quotient: $\log_a\!\left(\dfrac{x}{y}\right) = \log_a x - \log_a y$  |  Power: $\log_a(x^n) = n\log_a x$  |  Change of base: $\log_b a = \dfrac{\log_c a}{\log_c b}$

Remember: $\log_a a = 1$, $\log_a 1 = 0$. These laws apply to products and quotients of arguments, never to sums inside the argument.

6
4

Adjust x and y to verify the product, quotient, and power laws.

2 Solving Exponential Equations

To solve $a^x = b$, take logarithms of both sides:

$$a^x = b \iff x = \log_a b = \dfrac{\log b}{\log a} = \dfrac{\ln b}{\ln a}$$

For equations like $a^{2x} + pa^x + q = 0$, use the substitution $u = a^x$ to convert to a quadratic in $u$, solve, then back-substitute (rejecting $u \leq 0$ since $a^x > 0$).

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1.5

3 Natural Logarithm & the Exponential Function

The natural logarithm $\ln x = \log_e x$ and the exponential $e^x$ are inverses:

$$\ln(e^x) = x, \quad e^{\ln x} = x \quad (x > 0)$$ Key properties: $e^0 = 1$, $\ln 1 = 0$, $e^{a+b} = e^a \cdot e^b$, $\ln(xy) = \ln x + \ln y$.

To solve $\ln f(x) = c$, exponentiate both sides: $f(x) = e^c$. Always check the domain: the argument of $\ln$ must be positive.

0.8

eˣ = | ln(x) =

Green: y = eˣ. Amber: y = ln(x). The curves are reflections of each other in y = x.

4 Modelling with Logarithms — Reducing to Linear Form

Non-linear relationships can be tested by plotting logarithms:

Exponential model $y = ab^t$:   $\log y = \log a + t\log b$  → plot $\log y$ vs $t$ (straight line, gradient $\log b$, intercept $\log a$).
Power model $y = ax^b$:   $\log y = \log a + b\log x$  → plot $\log y$ vs $\log x$ (straight line, gradient $b$, intercept $\log a$).

If the log-log or log-linear plot is a straight line, the model fits. Use the gradient and intercept to recover $a$ and $b$.

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0.5
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5 Algebra Toolkit Review (W1) — Connecting to Log/Exp

Many exam questions combine log/exp skills with the W1 algebra toolkit:

Modulus: $|ax + b| = c \iff ax + b = \pm c$.   $|a| = |b| \iff a^2 = b^2$.
Factor theorem: $(x - k)$ is a factor of $f(x)$ $\iff f(k) = 0$. Used to factorise cubics before solving $a^{3y} + \ldots = 0$ via substitution.
Partial fractions: $\dfrac{px + q}{(x-a)(x-b)} = \dfrac{A}{x-a} + \dfrac{B}{x-b}$. Often needed before integrating or expanding.
Binomial expansion: $(1+x)^n = 1 + nx + \dfrac{n(n-1)}{2!}x^2 + \cdots$ for $|x| < 1$.

Key connection: Substitution $u = a^x$ turns an exponential equation into a polynomial equation — then the factor theorem and polynomial skills from W1 become essential.

Activity 1 · Group Log/Exp Knowledge Jigsaw
Think-First (2 min team huddle)

Before splitting into expert groups, predict together: which topic area do you feel MOST confident about, and which feels LEAST secure? Note your prediction - you will revisit it after combining the jigsaw.

How it works: Form 4 expert groups. Each group studies one topic area, then all groups combine their knowledge to solve a master challenge. Click your group's panel to reveal the key concepts and your expert challenge.

Expert panels completed: 0 / 4
A Log Law Experts Click to explore ▶
Key Concepts
  • Product Law: $\log_a(mn) = \log_a m + \log_a n$
  • Quotient Law: $\log_a\!\left(\dfrac{m}{n}\right) = \log_a m - \log_a n$
  • Power Law: $\log_a(m^n) = n \log_a m$
Expert Challenge: Simplify $2\log 4 + \log 9 - \dfrac{1}{2}\log 144$
Your answer:
$\log 12$
$\log 6$
$\log 24$
$\log 48$

$2\log 4 = \log 16$ and $\dfrac{1}{2}\log 144 = \log 12$. So $\log 16 + \log 9 - \log 12 = \log\!\left(\dfrac{16 \times 9}{12}\right) = \log 12$.

B Exponential Experts Click to explore ▶
Key Concepts
  • $e^x$ and $\ln x$ are inverse functions: $e^{\ln x} = x$ and $\ln(e^x) = x$
  • Domain of $e^x$: all real $x$; Range: $y > 0$
  • Domain of $\ln x$: $x > 0$; Range: all real $y$
  • $y = e^{kx}$: growth when $k > 0$, decay when $k < 0$
Expert Challenge: Solve $\ln(3 - x) = 4 + \ln x$
Your answer:
$x = \dfrac{3}{e^4 + 1} \approx 0.0525$
$x = \dfrac{3}{e^4 - 1}$
$x = e^4 - 3$
$x = \dfrac{e^4}{3}$

$\ln(3 - x) - \ln x = 4 \Rightarrow \ln\!\left(\dfrac{3 - x}{x}\right) = 4 \Rightarrow \dfrac{3 - x}{x} = e^4 \Rightarrow 3 - x = x e^4 \Rightarrow x = \dfrac{3}{e^4 + 1} \approx 0.0525$.

C Equation Solvers Click to explore ▶
Key Concepts
  • To solve $a^x = b$: take logs $\Rightarrow x = \dfrac{\log b}{\log a}$
  • To solve $a^{f(x)} = b^{g(x)}$: take logs $\Rightarrow f(x) \log a = g(x) \log b$
  • Substitution for $e^{2x} + e^x = c$: let $u = e^x$
Expert Challenge: Solve $e^{2x} + e^x = 12$
Your answer:
$x = \ln 3 \approx 1.099$
$x = \ln 4$
$x = \ln(-4)$
$x = \ln 3$ or $\ln(-4)$

Let $u = e^x$ (so $u > 0$): $u^2 + u - 12 = 0 \Rightarrow (u + 4)(u - 3) = 0$. Since $u = e^x > 0$, take $u = 3 \Rightarrow x = \ln 3 \approx 1.099$.

D Linearisation Detectives Click to explore ▶
Key Concepts
  • $y = kx^n \Rightarrow \ln y = \ln k + n \ln x$ (plot $\ln y$ vs $\ln x$)
  • $y = ka^x \Rightarrow \ln y = \ln k + x \ln a$ (plot $\ln y$ vs $x$)
  • Gradient $= n$ or $\ln a$; Intercept $= \ln k$; $k = e^{\text{intercept}}$
Expert Challenge: If $\ln y = 1.5 + 0.4x$, express $y$ in terms of $x$
Your answer:
$y = e^{1.5} \times e^{0.4x}$
$y = 1.5 \times 0.4^x$
$y = e^{1.5} + 0.4x$
$y = 1.5 e^{0.4x}$

Exponentiate both sides: $y = e^{1.5 + 0.4x} = e^{1.5} \times e^{0.4x}$.

Master Challenge - Combine Your Expertise
A population $P$ grows according to $P = P_0 e^{kt}$. The graph of $\ln P$ against $t$ passes through $(0,\, 2.3)$ and $(10,\, 4.1)$.
(a) Find $P_0$ and $k$
$P_0 = e^{2.3} \approx 9.97$, $k = 0.18$
$P_0 = 2.3$, $k = 0.18$
$P_0 = e^{2.3}$, $k = 0.41$
$P_0 = 2.3$, $k = 4.1$

$\ln P = \ln P_0 + kt$. At $t = 0$: $\ln P_0 = 2.3 \Rightarrow P_0 = e^{2.3} \approx 9.97$. At $t = 10$: $4.1 = 2.3 + 10k \Rightarrow k = 0.18$.

(b) Find the doubling time
$t = \dfrac{\ln 2}{0.18} \approx 3.85$ years
$t = \dfrac{0.18}{\ln 2}$
$t = \dfrac{2.3}{0.18}$
$t = \ln 2 \times 0.18$

Doubling means $P = 2P_0$: $2P_0 = P_0 e^{0.18t} \Rightarrow 2 = e^{0.18t} \Rightarrow t = \dfrac{\ln 2}{0.18} \approx 3.85$ years.

(c) After how many years is $P = 1000$?
$t = \dfrac{\ln(1000) - 2.3}{0.18} \approx 25.6$ years
$t = \dfrac{1000 - 9.97}{0.18}$
$t = \dfrac{\ln 1000}{0.18}$
$t = \dfrac{2.3}{\ln 1000 \times 0.18}$

$\ln 1000 = 2.3 + 0.18t \Rightarrow t = \dfrac{\ln 1000 - 2.3}{0.18} = \dfrac{6.908 - 2.3}{0.18} \approx 25.6$ years.

Activity 2 · Individual Adaptive Exit Quiz: Log/Exp Mastery
Think-First (1 min silent)

Before you begin, gauge your current level across the chapter: where are you strongest, and where might you stumble? The quiz will adapt to your answers, so answer honestly - there is no penalty for an easier path.

How it works: Test your mastery of the entire Log/Exp chapter! This quiz adapts to your level - answer correctly to get harder questions, or incorrectly to get easier ones. 5 questions stand between you and mastery!

Question 1 of 5
Path: —
✏️ Worked Examples
Worked Example 1 · Group Solving $2|3^x - 1| = 3^x$
Ex 2B Q16 Advanced

Solve the equation $2\lvert 3^x - 1 \rvert = 3^x$, giving your answers correct to 3 significant figures.

-0.8

2|3ˣ − 1| = | 3ˣ =

Green: y = 2|3ˣ − 1|. Amber: y = 3ˣ. Move the slider to find where the curves meet.

What are the solutions (3 s.f.)?
$x \approx 0.631$ only
$x \approx 0.631$ or $x \approx 0.369$
$x \approx 0.631$ or $x \approx -0.369$
$x \approx -0.631$ only

Both roots exist: one positive (where $3^x > 1$) and one negative (where $3^x < 1$). The negative root is $-\!0.369$, not $+\!0.369$, because $3^x = \tfrac{2}{3} < 1$ gives a negative $x$.

Hint

Let $u = 3^x$ (so $u > 0$). The equation becomes $2|u - 1| = u$, i.e. $|u - 1| = \dfrac{u}{2}$. Split into two cases based on whether $u \geq 1$ or $u < 1$.

Substitute $u = 3^x$ (where $u > 0$)

$$2|u - 1| = u \implies |u - 1| = \dfrac{u}{2}$$

Case 1: $u \geq 1$

$u - 1 = \dfrac{u}{2} \implies u - \dfrac{u}{2} = 1 \implies \dfrac{u}{2} = 1 \implies u = 2$

Check: $u = 2 \geq 1$ ✓    So $3^x = 2 \implies x = \log_3 2 = \dfrac{\ln 2}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{0.6931}{1.0986} \approx 0.6309$

Case 2: $0 < u < 1$

$1 - u = \dfrac{u}{2} \implies 1 = \dfrac{3u}{2} \implies u = \dfrac{2}{3}$

Check: $u = \dfrac{2}{3} < 1$ ✓    So $3^x = \dfrac{2}{3} \implies x = \log_3\!\left(\dfrac{2}{3}\right) = \dfrac{\ln(2/3)}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{-0.4055}{1.0986} \approx -0.3691$

Final Answer

$$x \approx 0.631 \quad \text{or} \quad x \approx -0.369 \quad \text{(3 s.f.)}$$

Worked Example 2 · Individual Polynomial × Exponential — Factor Theorem Meets $3^y$
Ex 2B Q20 (9709 P3 Q4 Jun 2011) Advanced

The polynomial $\mathrm{f}(x)$ is defined by $\mathrm{f}(x) = 12x^3 + 25x^2 - 4x - 12$.

(i) Show that $\mathrm{f}(-2) = 0$ and factorise $\mathrm{f}(x)$ completely.

(ii) Given that $12 \times 27^y + 25 \times 9^y - 4 \times 3^y - 12 = 0$, state the value of $3^y$ and hence find $y$ correct to 3 significant figures.

Cambridge International AS & A Level Mathematics 9709 Paper 31 Q4 June 2011

-0.5

f(u) = 12u³ + 25u² − 4u − 12 =

Move the slider to find the roots of f(u). The substitution is u = 3y (so u > 0).

What is the value of y (3 s.f.)?
$y \approx -0.369$
$y \approx 0.369$
$y \approx 0.631$
$y \approx -1.26$

Only $u = \tfrac{2}{3}$ is positive (the other roots $u = -2$ and $u = -\tfrac{3}{4}$ are rejected since $u = 3^y > 0$). So $3^y = \tfrac{2}{3}$, giving $y = \log_3(2/3) = \dfrac{\ln(2/3)}{\ln 3} \approx -0.369$.

Hint

For (i), substitute $x = -2$ into f(x) and verify it equals 0, then divide f(x) by $(x + 2)$ to get a quadratic — factorise that quadratic. For (ii), let $u = 3^y$ so that $27^y = u^3$ and $9^y = u^2$. The equation becomes $\mathrm{f}(u) = 0$. Use your factorisation from (i) and remember $u = 3^y > 0$.

Part (i): Verify f(−2) = 0

$$\mathrm{f}(-2) = 12(-2)^3 + 25(-2)^2 - 4(-2) - 12 = -96 + 100 + 8 - 12 = 0 \quad \checkmark$$

So $(x + 2)$ is a factor. Divide $\mathrm{f}(x)$ by $(x + 2)$:

$$\mathrm{f}(x) = (x + 2)(12x^2 + x - 6)$$

Part (i): Factorise the quadratic

Solve $12x^2 + x - 6 = 0$:

$$x = \dfrac{-1 \pm \sqrt{1 + 288}}{24} = \dfrac{-1 \pm 17}{24}$$

$x = \dfrac{16}{24} = \dfrac{2}{3}$   or   $x = \dfrac{-18}{24} = -\dfrac{3}{4}$

So $12x^2 + x - 6 = (3x - 2)(4x + 3)$, giving:

$$\mathrm{f}(x) = (x + 2)(3x - 2)(4x + 3)$$

Part (ii): Substitute $u = 3^y$

Since $27^y = (3^y)^3 = u^3$ and $9^y = (3^y)^2 = u^2$, the equation becomes:

$$12u^3 + 25u^2 - 4u - 12 = 0 \quad \text{which is } \mathrm{f}(u) = 0$$

Using the factorisation from (i):

$$(u + 2)(3u - 2)(4u + 3) = 0$$

$u = -2$,   $u = \dfrac{2}{3}$,   or   $u = -\dfrac{3}{4}$

Since $u = 3^y > 0$, reject $u = -2$ and $u = -\dfrac{3}{4}$. The only valid value is:

$$3^y = \dfrac{2}{3}$$

Part (ii): Solve for y

$$y = \log_3\!\left(\dfrac{2}{3}\right) = \dfrac{\ln(2/3)}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{\ln 2 - \ln 3}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{0.6931 - 1.0986}{1.0986} = \dfrac{-0.4055}{1.0986} \approx -0.3691$$

Final Answer

(i) $\mathrm{f}(x) = (x + 2)(3x - 2)(4x + 3)$

(ii) $3^y = \dfrac{2}{3}$,   $y \approx -0.369$ (3 s.f.)

🎯 Concept Quiz — W1–W2 Objectives

Test your understanding across the W1–W2 syllabus. Each question targets one objective — try each before moving on!

Score: 0 / 5
Q1 (Modulus) — Solve $\lvert 2x - 1 \rvert = 3$
$x = 2$ only
$x = 2$ or $x = -1$
$x = 1$ or $x = -2$
$x = 3$ or $x = -3$

$|2x - 1| = 3$ gives $2x - 1 = 3$ or $2x - 1 = -3$. So $2x = 4 \Rightarrow x = 2$, or $2x = -2 \Rightarrow x = -1$. Both solutions are valid.

Q2 (Factor Theorem) — If $(x + 1)$ is a factor of $\mathrm{f}(x)$, then...
$\mathrm{f}(1) = 0$
$\mathrm{f}(0) = 1$
$\mathrm{f}(-1) = 0$
$\mathrm{f}(-1) = 1$

By the factor theorem, $(x - k)$ is a factor of $\mathrm{f}(x)$ if and only if $\mathrm{f}(k) = 0$. Here $(x + 1) = (x - (-1))$, so $k = -1$ and we need $\mathrm{f}(-1) = 0$.

Q3 (Logarithms) — Simplify $\log_2 8 + \log_2 4$
$3$
$4$
$12$
$5$

Product law: $\log_2 8 + \log_2 4 = \log_2(8 \times 4) = \log_2 32 = 5$ (since $2^5 = 32$). Alternatively, $\log_2 8 = 3$ and $\log_2 4 = 2$, so $3 + 2 = 5$.

Q4 (Binomial) — First three terms of $(1 + x)^{-1}$
$1 - x + x^2$
$1 + x + x^2$
$1 - x - x^2$
$1 + x - x^2$

Substitute $n = -1$: $(1+x)^{-1} = 1 + (-1)x + \dfrac{(-1)(-2)}{2!}x^2 + \cdots = 1 - x + x^2 - \cdots$ Valid for $|x| < 1$. This is the geometric series $\dfrac{1}{1-x} = 1 + x + x^2 + \cdots$ with $x$ replaced by $-x$.

Q5 (Exponentials) — Solve $2^x = 32$
$x = 4$
$x = 6$
$x = 5$
$x = 16$

Since $32 = 2^5$, we have $2^x = 2^5$, so $x = 5$. In general, $2^x = b \Rightarrow x = \log_2 b = \dfrac{\ln b}{\ln 2}$.

🎉
You scored 0 / 4
✏️ More Practice
Exercise 2B Q7(vii) Standard

Solve the inequality $2 \leqslant 5^x < 8$.

Take $\log_5$ throughout

Since $\log_5$ is an increasing function, the inequality signs are preserved:

$$\log_5 2 \leqslant x < \log_5 8$$

Evaluate using change of base

$$\log_5 2 = \dfrac{\ln 2}{\ln 5} = \dfrac{0.6931}{1.6094} \approx 0.4307$$

$$\log_5 8 = \dfrac{\ln 8}{\ln 5} = \dfrac{2.0794}{1.6094} \approx 1.2920$$

Final Answer

$$0.431 \leqslant x < 1.29 \quad \text{(3 s.f.)}$$

Exercise 2B Q10(iv) Standard

Solve the equation $6^{2x} - 5(6^x) + 6 = 0$.

Substitute $u = 6^x$ (where $u > 0$)

Since $6^{2x} = (6^x)^2 = u^2$, the equation becomes:

$$u^2 - 5u + 6 = 0$$

Factorise and solve the quadratic

$$(u - 2)(u - 3) = 0 \implies u = 2 \text{ or } u = 3$$

Both values are positive, so both are valid.

Back-substitute $u = 6^x$

$6^x = 2 \implies x = \log_6 2 = \dfrac{\ln 2}{\ln 6} = \dfrac{0.6931}{1.7918} \approx 0.3869$

$6^x = 3 \implies x = \log_6 3 = \dfrac{\ln 3}{\ln 6} = \dfrac{1.0986}{1.7918} \approx 0.6131$

Final Answer

$$x \approx 0.387 \quad \text{or} \quad x \approx 0.613 \quad \text{(3 s.f.)}$$

Exercise 2B Q17 Challenging

Using the substitution $u = 3^x$, or otherwise, solve, correct to 3 significant figures, the equation $3^x = 2 + 3^{-x}$.

Hint

Let $u = 3^x$ (so $3^{-x} = \dfrac{1}{u}$). Multiply through by $u$ to clear the fraction, giving a quadratic in $u$. Remember $u > 0$.

Substitute $u = 3^x$ (where $u > 0$)

Since $3^{-x} = \dfrac{1}{u}$, the equation becomes:

$$u = 2 + \dfrac{1}{u}$$

Multiply through by $u$ and rearrange

$$u^2 = 2u + 1 \implies u^2 - 2u - 1 = 0$$

Solve the quadratic

$$u = \dfrac{2 \pm \sqrt{4 + 4}}{2} = \dfrac{2 \pm 2\sqrt{2}}{2} = 1 \pm \sqrt{2}$$

Since $u = 3^x > 0$, reject $u = 1 - \sqrt{2} \approx -0.414$ (negative).

So $u = 1 + \sqrt{2} \approx 2.414$.

Back-substitute to find $x$

$$3^x = 1 + \sqrt{2} \implies x = \log_3(1 + \sqrt{2}) = \dfrac{\ln(1 + \sqrt{2})}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{\ln(2.4142)}{\ln 3} = \dfrac{0.88137}{1.0986} \approx 0.80222$$

Final Answer

$$x \approx 0.802 \quad \text{(3 s.f.)}$$

Exercise 2C Q7 Advanced

(i) After the introduction of a vaccine, the numbers of new cases of a virus infection in successive weeks are given in the table below.

$\begin{array}{|l|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline \text{Week number, } t & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ \hline \text{No. of new cases, } y & 240 & 150 & 95 & 58 & 38 \\ \hline \end{array}$

Plot the points $(t, y)$ on graph paper and join them with a smooth curve.

(ii) Decide on a suitable model to relate $t$ and $y$, and plot an appropriate graph to find this model. (You may wish to use a spreadsheet or graphing software.)

(iii) Find the value of $y$ when $t = 15$, and explain what you find.

Hint 1

Check whether the ratios $\dfrac{y_{t+1}}{y_t}$ are roughly constant — if so, an exponential model $y = ab^t$ is appropriate. Take logs: $\log y = \log a + t\log b$, then plot $\log y$ against $t$.

Part (i): Plot the points

The points $(1, 240)$, $(2, 150)$, $(3, 95)$, $(4, 58)$, $(5, 38)$ form a smooth decreasing curve — consistent with exponential decay.

Part (ii): Test an exponential model $y = ab^t$

Compute $\log_{10} y$ for each data point:

$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline t & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ \hline \log_{10} y & 2.380 & 2.176 & 1.978 & 1.763 & 1.580 \\ \hline \end{array}$

The values of $\log_{10} y$ decrease roughly linearly, confirming the exponential model $y = ab^t$ where $\log_{10} y = \log_{10} a + t \log_{10} b$.

Part (ii): Find $a$ and $b$ from the line of best fit

Using the endpoints $(1, 2.380)$ and $(5, 1.580)$:

$$\text{Gradient} = \log_{10} b = \dfrac{1.580 - 2.380}{5 - 1} = \dfrac{-0.800}{4} = -0.200$$

$$b = 10^{-0.200} \approx 0.631$$

$$\log_{10} a = 2.380 - 1 \times (-0.200) = 2.580 \implies a = 10^{2.580} \approx 380$$

So the model is: $y \approx 380 \times 0.631^t$.

Part (iii): Find $y$ when $t = 15$

$$y = 380 \times 0.631^{15}$$

Compute $0.631^{15}$:   $\ln(0.631^{15}) = 15 \times \ln(0.631) = 15 \times (-0.4605) = -6.908$

$$0.631^{15} = e^{-6.908} \approx 0.00100$$

$$y \approx 380 \times 0.00100 \approx 0.38$$

Part (iii): Interpretation

When $t = 15$, $y \approx 0.38$, which is less than 1. This means the model predicts fewer than one new case per week — the number of new cases has effectively dropped to zero. The vaccine has successfully brought the infection under control.

Caution: the model is based on only 5 data points. Beyond the data range, the prediction assumes the exponential decay continues at the same rate — in reality, the decay may slow as residual cases take longer to resolve.

Final Answer

(ii) $y \approx 380 \times 0.631^t$ (exponential decay model).

(iii) $y(15) \approx 0.38$ — fewer than 1 new case per week, indicating the vaccine is working.

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Exit Ticket — W1–W2 Review

Check the learning objectives you feel confident about: